Economic evaluation and investment decision-making process of deep coalbed methane exploration and development projects
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摘要:
深部煤层气是近年来勘探开发进展迅速且前景极为广阔的一种优质天然气资源，高效开发深部煤层气对于中国成功实现能源转型发展和助力“双碳”目标具有重要战略及现实意义。勘探开发项目经济性的科学合理评价及项目投资决策是实现深部煤层气效益开发中的2个重要而紧迫的难题。结合深部煤层气勘探开发项目及经济评价特点，构建了基于折现现金流方法的评价方法与指标，并将该方法应用于鄂尔多斯盆地东缘大宁—吉县区块典型模拟开发项目A。结果表明：该方法具有较强的可操作性，可满足深部煤层气项目投资决策需要；在当前技术经济条件下，鄂尔多斯盆地东缘大宁—吉县区块开发模拟项目A具有较好的经济效益，具备技术经济可行性。通过单因素敏感性分析表明，价格、产量、投资及成本是影响项目经济性的关键因素；通过双因素、三因素及四因素不同组合情景下的压力测试分析结果表明，项目A具有较强的多因素抗风险能力；聚焦价格及产量2个重点风险因素，通过典型情景分析结果表明，灵活的市场价格政策、适度的差异化财政补贴政策、加强基础理论创新、加强工程技术创新对于应对项目重点风险至关重要，是现阶段我国深部煤层气全面快速发展不可或缺的支撑要素。同时，结合近年深部煤层气开发实践，借鉴北美及国内页岩气勘探开发经验，将深部煤层气勘探开发程序划分为选区评价、勘探评价、先导试验和开发生产4个阶段，明确了各阶段主要任务及目标、决策点、对应项目及经济评价方法及项目决策流程，为规范化、高效实施深部煤层气勘探开发项目并积极推动我国深部煤层气产业高质量发展提供有力借鉴。
Abstract:Deep coalbed methane is a high-quality natural gas resource that has seen rapid exploration and development progress in recent years and holds an extremely promising future. The efficient development of deep coalbed methane has significant strategic and practical importance for China to successfully achieve energy transformation and development and support the “dual carbon” goals. The scientific and reasonable economic evaluation of exploration and development projects and investment decision-making are two crucial and urgent challenges in achieving the efficient development of deep coalbed methane. In light of the characteristics of deep coalbed methane resource development and economic evaluation, an evaluation method and indicators based on the discounted cash flow method are constructed and applied to the typical simulated development project A in Daning-Jixian block on the eastern margin of the Ordos Basin. The research results show that:This method is highly operational and can meet the investment decision-making needs of deep coalbed methane projects.Under the current technical and economic conditions, the simulated development project A in the Daning-Jixian block on the eastern margin of the Ordos Basin has good economic benefits and is technically and economically feasible.The single-factor sensitivity analysis indicates that price, output, investment and cost are the key factors influencing the economic viability of the project. The stress test analysis results under different combinations of two, three and four factors show that Project A has a strong multi-factor risk resistance capacity. Focusing on the two key risk factors of price and output, the typical scenario analysis results indicate that flexible market price policies, moderate differentiated fiscal subsidy policies, strengthening basic theoretical innovation and engineering technological innovation are crucial for addressing the key risks of the project and are indispensable supporting elements for the comprehensive and rapid development of deep coalbed methane in China at the present stage. At the same time, based on the practical experience of deep coalbed methane development in recent years and drawing on the exploration and development experience of shale gas in North America and China, the exploration and development process of deep coalbed methane is divided into four stages: area selection and evaluation, exploration evaluation, pilot test and development. The main tasks and goals, decision points, corresponding projects, economic evaluation methods and project decision-making processes of each stage are clearly defined. This provides a strong reference for the standardized and efficient implementation of deep coalbed methane exploration and development projects and the promotion of high-quality development of China's deep coalbed methane industry.
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图 1 方案技术经济双向优化示意
Figure 1. Schematic diagram of technical and economic bidirectional optimization
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图 2 A项目全生命周期完全成本分年柱状图
Figure 2. Annual bar chart of the full life cycle total cost for Project A
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图 3 A项目典型井单井日产分年产量剖面图
Figure 3. Annual production profile chart of typical well daily output for Project A
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图 4 A项目税后内部收益率敏感性分析
Figure 4. Sensitivity analysis chart of post-tax internal rate of return for Project A
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图 5 深部煤层气勘探开发运行阶段项目决策流程
Figure 5. Flowchart of project decision-making process for different operational phases of deep coalbed methane exploration and development
表 1 项目敏感性分析
Table 1 Project sensitivity analysis
参数 平均敏感度系数 临界点 决策临界值 气价/(元·m−3) 3.02 −12.6% 1.547 产量/亿m3 3.00 −12.8% 117 建设投资/亿元 2.11 22.6% 127 操作成本/(元·m−3) 0.53 70.5% 0.521 
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表 2 压力测试评价结果汇总
Table 2 Summary of stress test evaluation results
情景 序号 情景方案 内部
收益率/%双因素
情景情景1 价格及产量下降5% 6.93 情景2 价格及产量下降10% 4.05 情景3 价格下降5%、投资上升5% 7.44 情景4 产量下降5%、投资上升5% 7.45 三因素
情景情景1 价格及煤层气产量下降3%、投资上升5% 7.18 情景2 价格及煤层气产量下降5%、投资上升5% 6.06 情景3 价格下降10%、产量下降5%、投资上升5% 4.65 情景4 价格下降5%、产量下降10%、投资上升5% 4.66 四因素
情景情景1 价格及产量均下降3%，投资及成本均上升5% 6.93 情景2 价格及产量下降3%，投资上升5%，成本上升10% 6.67 情景3 价格下降10%，产量下降5%，投资及成本上升5% 4.38 情景4 价格下降5%，产量下降10%，投资及成本上升5% 4.39
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表 3 不同区域销售价格情景分析
Table 3 Scenario analysis of sales prices in different regions
参数 价格 IRR/% 山西门站价/(元·m−3) 1.770 9.86 陕西省门站价/(元·m−3) 1.220 −0.12 四川省门站价/(元·m−3) 1.530 5.76 新疆门站价/(元·m−3) 1.030 −27.9
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表 4 不同首年单井配产情景分析
Table 4 Scenario analysis of different first-year single well production allocation
首年配产情景 产量 IRR/% 情景1/(万m3 ·d−1) 3.6 9.86 情景2/(万m3·d−1) 3.3 7.40 情景3/(万m3·d−1) 3.0 4.80 情景4/(万m3·d−1) 2.5 0.08
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表 5 深部煤层气勘探开发运行阶段及主要任务目标
Table 5 Operational phases and primary objective targets for deep coalbed methane exploration and developmen
阶段 主要任务及目标 决策点 对应项目及
经济评价方法选区评价阶段 初步开展地质评价；确定勘探潜力；提交远景资源量及其分布 资源规模 区探/预探项目：概略评价法 勘探评价阶段 开展取心钻探并了解储层特征；评估资源潜力并确定潜在气田区域分布范围；提交储量（控制/探明）；编制气田开发规划方案或开发概念设计 储量规模及产气能力 气藏评价项目：折现现金流评价法 先导试验阶段 深化认识地质特征和开发特征；试验和筛选开发主体工艺技术；确定合理的开发指标；论证气藏开发技术经济可行性 技术经济可行性 开发项目：折现现金流评价法 开发生产阶段 科学编制开发方案；实施深部煤层气规模高效开发；获取天然气产量并实现投资回报 规模开发技术经济可行性 开发项目：折现现金流评价法
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