Reflection on China’s coal resource guarantee capacity and exploration work under the background of “double carbon”
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摘要:
我国以煤为主的能源消费结构短期内不会改变。目前我国煤炭能源仍然处在需求量大、资源高强度开发阶段，有必要认真审视我国煤炭资源勘查工作。通过分析我国煤炭资源分布与保存问题，基本摸清了煤炭资源状况。认为我国煤炭资源相对丰富，但分布主要受东西向、南北向“两横”和“两纵”构造带控制，在“九宫”分布不同区域资源赋存与开发程度不均衡，中东部地区开发强度大，西部资源丰富但勘查开发程度低。同时，对我国主要煤炭矿区典型矿井的煤炭资源采出情况进行了调查与计算，研究了煤炭资源采出率的计算方法，得出目前技术条件下多数矿井的煤炭资源采出率在24.3%～59.8%，直接反映了目前开采技术条件下我国查明煤炭资源、储量的实际采出情况。我国目前查明煤炭资源、储量20 a后大多将被开采和占用，保障能力不足，需要引起全社会对煤炭资源勘查工作的重视，提前谋划合理制定针对性的解决方案。从现在开始勘查工作：一是加强中东部老矿区煤炭储量增储勘查力度；二是加快煤炭勘查开发战略西移，建设煤炭基地“双子座”；三是开展深部和复杂地区的地质条件精细勘查评价，助力煤炭资源、储量的储备能力提升，实现煤炭在保障我国能源安全稳定发展中的压舱石作用。
Abstract:The structure of China’s coal-based energy consumption will not change in the short term. Coal resources are still being developed at a high intensity and with significant demand in China.It's necessary to pay close attention to China’s coal resource exploration efforts. This study essentially determines the state of coal resources by examining the distribution and preservation of coal resources in China. The distribution of China’s comparatively abundant coal resources is mostly governed by the “two horizontal” and “two vertical” tectonic bands that run east-west and north-south. The distribution of “nine palaces” resources is uneven in terms of their occurrence and development in the various regions. While there is little coal exploration and development in the western region despite its wealth of resources, there is a high level of coal development in the middle and eastern regions. The mining situation of coal resources in typical mines of main coal mining areas in China was investigated and calculated. The calculation method of coal resource recovery rate is studied. The resources mined by the majority of mines only make up 24.3% to 59.8% of the resource reserves found through exploration, which can essentially represent the actual mining situation of the coal resource reserves found in China under the current technical mining conditions. The majority of the coal resource reserves that have been identified in China’s present exploration and appraisal will be mined and occupied in 20 years, according to the research. The inability to reliably identify resource reserves necessitates drawing society’s attention to the exploration of coal resources and enabling proactive planning and formulation of focused solutions. In order to realize the ballast role of coal in ensuring the safe and stable development of China’s energy sector, it is necessary to strengthen the exploration of coal reserves in the old mining areas in the central and eastern regions; accelerate the westward shift of coal development strategy, the construction of coal base “Gemini”; and carry out fine exploration and evaluation of geological conditions in deep and complex areas.
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图 2 我国煤炭资源“九宫”分区的保有煤炭资源量分布
Figure 2. Distribution of retained coal resources in large coal bases in China
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图 3 生产煤矿资源采出率正态分布及80%置信区间分布
Figure 3. Normal distribution and 80% confidence interval distribution of production coal mine recovery rate
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图 4 政策性关闭煤矿资源采出率正态分布及80%置信区间分布
Figure 4. Normal distribution and 80% confidence interval distribution of the recovery rate of the policy-oriented coal mine
表 1 生产煤矿煤炭资源采出率计算方法验证分析
Table 1 Validation analysis of calculation method for recovery rate of production coal mine
煤矿 工业资源
储量/万t设计资源
储量/万t累计动用
量/万t实际损失煤炭
资源量/万t累计采出
量/万t剩余可采
量/万t永久煤柱摊销
损失量/万t煤炭资源
采出率/%矿一 7 664.7 7 146.7 4 055.1 1 542.7 2 512.4 1258.2 588.3 56.5 矿二 12 027.7 10 435.5 7 967.0 2 588.2 5 378.8 2019.0 1112.7 58.2 矿三 23 109.3 10 500.8 6 858.1 1 043.3 5 814.8 1627.1 9234.4 34.1 
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表 2 资源枯竭型关闭煤矿资源储量与煤矿资源回采率统计
Table 2 Statistical of resource reserves and mine recovery rate of resource-exhausted closed coal mines
煤矿编号 累计采出
量/万t累计动用量/万t 保有资源量/万t 煤矿资源
采出率/%BJ01 3932.6 5429.2 4487.5 39.7 BJ02 95.0 120.0 188.0 30.8 GZ01 206.4 274.2 222.8 41.5 GZ02 1302.9 1668.0 861.0 51.5 GZ03 636.1 1242.9 68.4 48.5 HB01 1438.5 2761.2 2577.6 26.9 HB02 819.12 1395.98 2841.7 19.3 HB03 3550.5 5807.5 5823.8 30.5 HB04 9027.3 5107.4 9522.1 61.7 HB05 1495.3 2418.9 8708.3 13.4 HB06 2892.1 4424.3 9120.8 21.4 HB07 781.0 1038.0 5040.8 12.9 SHD01 49.5 55.6 21.0 64.6 SHD02 532.8 683.4 194.0 60.7 SHD03 2722.4 3536.3 5537.1 30.0 SHD04 50.4 58.0 42.0 50.4 SHD05 806.6 1231.3 161.6 57.9 SHD06 1193.7 2343.0 526.0 41.6 SX01 10483.9 17909.0 10424.0 37.0 SX02 10570.9 16246.0 8177.0 43.3 SX03 9278.5 14965.0 8185.0 40.1 SX04 2202.8 4905.5 3755.1 25.4 SX05 132.4 250.0 492.0 17.8 SX06 3577.3 6175.8 9863.7 22.3 SX07 5135.0 7073.0 21941.6 17.7
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表 3 我国煤炭剩余可采资源量及情景分析
Table 3 China’s remaining recoverable coal resources and scenario analysis
全国煤炭资源“井”字形构造
“九宫”分区剩余可采
资源量/亿t年产
量/亿t开采年
限/a东北宫 75.42 1.6 <19 黄淮海宫 202.98 4.5 <18 东南宫 3.92 0.3 <5 蒙东宫 313.09 3 <42 晋陕蒙（西）宁宫 1618.83 25.4 <25 西南宫 150.07 2.9 <21 北疆宫 702.02 3 <94 甘青南疆宫 64.23 0.6 <43 西藏宫 — — —
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