相关分析法在矿井涌水量预测中的应用
Correlational Analysis Method Applied to Prediction of Mine Water Inflow Quantity
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摘要: 针对水文地质参数影响矿井水量预测可靠性的问题,提出利用多年矿井涌水量预测的相关因素分析法进行预测,以同煤大唐塔山煤矿为例,建立塔山煤矿充水地质模型,利用SPSS软件分析塔山煤矿矿井涌水量与累计煤炭产量、累计掘进进尺和累计采空区面积的相关性,建立矿井涌水量多元回归方程,实现矿井涌水量可靠预测。预测结果表明,塔山煤矿矿井涌水量与累计煤炭产量密切相关,煤矿开采3-5号煤层时的矿井涌水量为4 972 m3/d。该研究为煤矿防治水安全提供了可靠技术支持。Abstract: According to the hydrogeological parameters affected to the prediction reliability of the mine water quantity, the related factor analysis method to predict many years water inflow quantity was provided for predicting.Based on Datang Tashan Mine of Datong Coal Mine as a case, a water flling geological model of Tashan Mine was established.The SPSS software was applied to analyze the relativity between the Tashan mine water inflow quantity and the mine accumulated coal productio n, the accumulated heading advance rate and the accumulated goaf area.Multi regression equation of the mine water inflow quantity was set up and a reliable predictio n of the mine water inflow could be realized.The results showed that the mine water inflow quantity of Tashan Mine was closely related to the accumulated coal producti on.When the coal mining was in No.3-5 seam of the mine, the mine water inflow quantity would be 4 972 m3/d.The study could provide reliable technical support to the mine water prevention and control in the mine.
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