基于多维云模型的充填管道堵塞风险评估
Risk assessment of filling pipeline blockage based on multidimensional cloud model
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摘要: 管道堵塞是充填系统主要失效事故之一，严重阻碍了充填作业的正常进行。为准确预测充填管道堵塞风险，基于充填管道堵塞不确定性与模糊性的特点，引进多维云模型对管道堵塞风险进行评估。选取充填倍线等11项指标因素作为多维云模型变量，根据云理论确定数字特征；考虑到管道堵塞是由多指标共同作用的结果，采用改进CRITIC法对指标值进行处理，与多维云模型耦合得到评估对象隶属于不同风险等级的综合确定度，以此判定充填管道堵塞风险等级。对国内4家采用充填采矿法矿山的充填管道堵塞风险进行评估，结果表明：金川龙首矿、河东金矿、大红山铜矿、新城金矿充填管道堵塞风险等级分别为Ⅱ级、Ⅲ级、Ⅱ级、Ⅲ级。通过与模糊数学、未确知测度理论、一维云模型和SPA-AHP等评估方法进行对比，本文方法与其他方法获得的大红山铜矿的管道堵塞风险等级分别为Ⅱ、Ⅳ、Ⅲ、Ⅲ、Ⅱ级，该计算模型确定的风险等级在满足评估结果准确的前提下，对评估结果更加严格，实践中更能确保安全，也为充填管道堵塞风险预测提供了新方法。Abstract: Pipeline blockage is one of the main failure accidents of filling pipeline which seriously hinders the normal operation of filling. To accurately predict the risk of blockage,which based on the uncertainty and fuzziness of filling pipeline blockage,a multi-dimensional cloud model was established. Eleven elements,including the stowing gradient,were selected as the variables of the cloud model. The certain degree of each indicator of different risk levels was calculated according to the cloud theory. Taking the multi-index interaction of pipeline blockage into consideration,we introduce the improved CRITIC method to process the index data,and obtained the comprehensive determinacy by combining the multi-dimensional cloud model,so as to determine the risk level of filling pipeline blockage. The paper studied the case of four domestic mining enterprises,the results showed that the wear risk grades of Pipeline blockage in Longshou Mine,Hedong Gold Mine,Dahongshan Copper Mine and Xincheng Gold Mine were Ⅱ,Ⅲ,Ⅱ and Ⅲ respectively. Compared with fuzzy mathematics,unascertained measure theory,one-dimensional cloud model and SPA-AHP,the pipeline blockage risk grades of Dahongshan Copper Mine obtained by this method and other methods are Ⅱ,Ⅳ,Ⅲ,Ⅲ and Ⅱ respectively,the calculation model is more rigorous to the assessment results and can ensure safety in practice on the premise of satisfying the accuracy of assessment results. It also provides a new method for the risk prediction of filling pipeline blockage.
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