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基于微震动态响应与大模型增强的复杂地质煤层瓦斯突出智能预警方法

Intelligent early warning method for coal and gas outbursts in complex geological coal seams based on microseismic dynamic response and large model enhancement

  • 摘要: 煤与瓦斯突出是煤矿开采面临的最严重煤岩动力灾害之一,贵州省喀斯特地貌形成的“三高一低一复杂”极端地质条件使突出致灾机理更趋隐蔽与复杂,传统接触式静态单指标预测方法在监测连续性、动态响应和超前预警能力等方面已难以满足深部开采安全需求。为突破复杂地质条件下突出灾害精准预警的技术瓶颈,以贵州典型高突矿井为工程背景,依托微震动态响应与人工智能融合技术,提出了一套涵盖“数据精细化处理—地质异常辨识—风险分级评价—智能多源预警”的煤层突出微震动态预警技术体系。在信号处理层面,提出了基于频域快速奇异值分解(FSVD)与隐马尔可夫模型(HMM)串联架构的低信噪比微震信号高保真提取与波形智能识别方法,实现了作业干扰信号与煤岩真实微破裂波形的自动化分类与剔除,P波到时拾取误差降低70%以上。在知识支撑层面,创新性引入大语言模型(LLM)与BiLSTM-CRF深度网络,构建了涵盖“地质构造、瓦斯参数、微震响应、人工观测现象”四大维度的瓦斯突出前兆知识图谱,实现了非结构化文本中突出前兆实体的高精度抽取与结构化转化。在融合决策层面,构建了基于可传递信度模型(TBM)的多源信息深度融合预警算法,通过信度层融合与决策层转换机制,将微震动态物理指标、瓦斯监测时序数据及知识图谱先验知识进行量化合成与风险分级,有效解决了多源证据冲突与信息残缺工况下的推理决策难题。在贵州黔北矿区林华煤矿9号煤层开展了为期6个月的现场工业试验,结果表明:FSVD去噪算法将微震信号信噪比由5 dB以下提升至10 dB以上;TBM多源融合预警模型综合准确率达92%,共触发预警25次,经现场验证确认有效23次,漏报率为0;在穿越隐伏断层带工况下实现了超前2.5 d的精准预警,成功切断了灾害孕育链。笔者提出的智能预警方法在预警准确率、超前响应能力和工程实用性方面均具有显著优势,为深部复杂地质条件下煤与瓦斯突出灾害的“连续、动态、超前”防控提供了可靠的技术支撑与工程示范。

     

    Abstract: Coal and gas outburst is one of the most severe coal-rock dynamic disasters in deep coal mining. The extreme geological conditions of “three highs, one low and one complexity” (high gas content, high ground stress, high structural destruction, low permeability, and complex geological structures) in Guizhou Province, formed by typical karst landforms, have made the outburst disaster mechanisms increasingly concealed and complex. Conventional contact-based static single-indicator prediction methods are no longer adequate for meeting the demands of continuous, dynamic and advanced early warning in deep mining operations. To overcome the technical bottleneck of precise early warning under complex geological conditions, this study, taking typical high-outburst coal mines in Guizhou as the engineering background and leveraging microseismic dynamic responses and artificial intelligence fusion technologies, proposes a comprehensive microseismic dynamic early warning technical system for coal seam outbursts, encompassing “fine data processing, geological anomaly identification, risk grading evaluation, and intelligent multi-source early warning.” At the signal processing level, a high-fidelity extraction and intelligent waveform recognition method for low signal-to-noise ratio microseismic signals is proposed, based on a cascaded architecture of frequency-domain fast singular value decomposition (FSVD) and hidden Markov model (HMM), achieving automated classification and elimination of operational interference signals (drilling, blasting, coal mining, etc.) from genuine coal-rock microseismic waveforms, with P-wave arrival picking errors reduced by over 70%. At the knowledge support level, a large language model (LLM) combined with a BiLSTM-CRF deep network is innovatively introduced to construct a gas outburst precursor knowledge graph encompassing four core dimensions (geological structures, gas parameters, microseismic responses, and manual observation phenomena), enabling high-precision extraction and structural transformation of outburst precursor entities from unstructured text. At the fusion decision-making level, a multi-source information deep fusion early warning algorithm based on the transferable belief model (TBM) is established, which quantitatively synthesizes microseismic dynamic physical indicators, gas monitoring time-series data, and knowledge graph prior knowledge through belief-level fusion and decision-level transformation mechanisms, effectively addressing the challenges of multi-source evidence conflicts and incomplete information conditions in reasoning and decision-making. A six-month field industrial trial was conducted at the No. 9 coal seam of Linhua Coal Mine in the northern Guizhou mining area. The results demonstrate that the FSVD denoising algorithm improves the signal-to-noise ratio of microseismic signals from below 5 dB to above 10 dB. The TBM-based multi-source fusion early warning model achieves an overall accuracy of 92% (23 out of 25), with 23 effective warnings issued and a zero missed alarm rate. In the scenario of crossing a concealed fault zone, the system achieved precise early warning 2.5 days in advance, successfully interrupting the disaster incubation chain. The proposed intelligent early warning method demonstrates significant advantages in early warning accuracy, advance response capability, and engineering practicality, providing reliable technical support and an engineering paradigm for continuous, dynamic and advanced prevention and control of coal and gas outburst disasters under deep complex geological conditions.

     

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