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地下储能空间围岩稳定性监测与预测研究进展

Research progress on monitoring and prediction of surrounding rock stability of underground energy storage space

  • 摘要: 针对地下储能空间运行期围岩稳定性预测中工程场景差异明显、监测数据物理指向不清、预测模型与稳定性判识目标衔接不足等问题,围绕“监测响应—物理约束—稳定性状态”的关系,对地下储能围岩稳定性监测数据特征、预测方法适用条件及物理−数据融合思路进行归纳分析。以盐穴储能空间和硬岩地下硐室为主要对象,并将废弃矿井与采空区作为复杂扰动条件下的补充场景,从成腔方式、围岩介质、运行压力制度和支护结构差异出发,分析位移、应变、压力、温度、渗流、微地震、声发射、声呐测腔及地球物理探测等监测信息的工程含义,明确连续时序数据、事件型数据和空间成像数据在稳定性判识中的作用。分析表明,盐穴储能空间围岩稳定性主要受盐岩蠕变、腔体收敛、夹层渗流、注采压力循环和密封性演化控制,监测数据多表现为长周期、强趋势和缓变响应特征,稳定性预测应关注变形速率、腔体形态变化和压力运行边界;硬岩地下硐室受高内压循环、温度-压力耦合、局部损伤扩展及围岩−支护结构相互作用影响,监测数据更易表现为阶段性波动、多参量耦合和突发异常,稳定性判识应关注损伤活动集中、支护受力变化和异常响应识别;废弃矿井与采空区受历史采动和空间结构非均匀性影响,监测数据常伴随点位缺失、噪声叠加和突变响应,不宜直接套用盐穴或硬岩硐室的预测逻辑。地下储能围岩稳定性预测的关键不在于单纯比较算法精度,而在于预测结果能否反映围岩力学响应规律并满足运行边界约束。监测数据处理应由一般性的降噪、标准化和拟合优化,转向面向稳定性状态识别的特征构建;预测模型应结合围岩介质本构关系、运行压力与温度边界、渗流条件及稳定性判据,对预测结果的演化趋势和合理范围进行约束。模型评价需综合考虑预测精度、物理一致性、异常识别能力和预警可解释性,以提高地下储能空间运行期围岩稳定性动态评估与风险预警的工程适用性。

     

    Abstract: To address the problems of distinct engineering scenarios, unclear physical implications of monitoring data, and insufficient connection between prediction models and stability identification targets during the operation of underground energy storage spaces, the monitoring data characteristics, applicable conditions of prediction methods, and physics–data fusion approaches for surrounding rock stability are analyzed based on the relationship of “monitoring response–physical constraint–stability state”. Salt cavern energy storage spaces and hard rock underground caverns are taken as the main objects, and abandoned mines and goafs are used as supplementary scenarios under complex disturbance conditions. Based on differences in cavern-forming method, surrounding rock medium, operating pressure regime, and support structure, the engineering implications of monitoring information, including displacement, strain, pressure, temperature, seepage, microseismicity, acoustic emission, sonar cavity measurement, and geophysical detection, are analyzed, and the roles of continuous time-series data, event-based data, and spatial imaging data in stability identification are clarified. The analysis shows that the stability of salt cavern energy storage spaces is mainly controlled by salt rock creep, cavity convergence, interlayer seepage, pressure cycling during injection and withdrawal, and sealing evolution. Their monitoring data usually show long-period, strongly trending, and slowly varying responses, so prediction should focus on deformation rate, cavity shape variation, and pressure operation boundaries. Hard rock underground caverns are affected by high internal pressure cycling, temperature–pressure coupling, local damage propagation, and interaction between surrounding rock and support structures. Their monitoring data are more likely to show staged fluctuations, multi-parameter coupling, and sudden anomalies, so stability identification should focus on damage activity concentration, support stress variation, and abnormal response recognition. Abandoned mines and goafs are affected by historical mining disturbance and spatial structural heterogeneity, and their monitoring data are often accompanied by missing measuring points, superposed noise, and abrupt responses; therefore, prediction logic for salt caverns or hard rock caverns should not be directly applied. The key to stability prediction of underground energy storage surrounding rock is not simply comparing algorithm accuracy, but whether the prediction results can reflect surrounding rock mechanical response laws and satisfy operating boundary constraints. Monitoring data processing should shift from general denoising, standardization, and fitting optimization to feature construction oriented to stability state identification. Prediction models should incorporate constitutive relationships of surrounding rock media, operating pressure and temperature boundaries, seepage conditions, and stability criteria to constrain the evolution trend and reasonable range of prediction results. Model evaluation should consider prediction accuracy, physical consistency, anomaly identification capability, and warning interpretability, thereby improving the engineering applicability of dynamic stability assessment and risk warning during operation.

     

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