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基于倒数误差法的抛掷爆破振动速度集成预测模型

Integrated prediction model for vibration velocity of blasting casting based on reciprocal error method

  • 摘要: 与松动爆破相比,抛掷爆破振动强度大,频率低,对露天矿安全生产影响更大。为准确预测抛掷爆破振动速度,基于文献整理数据及抛掷爆破现场监测数据,分析抛掷爆破振动速度相关数据特征,利用皮尔逊(Pearson)相关性分析法明确抛掷爆破振动速度关键影响因素,构建抛掷爆破振动速度预测指标体系。分别构建了遗传算法优化最小二乘支持向量机(GA-LSSVM)模型和埃尔曼神经网络优化自适应增强算法(Elman-Adaboost)模型,并采用倒数误差法将二者集成,最终形成抛掷爆破振动速度集成预测模型,并提出了模型评价准则及检验方法。结果表明:爆心距离、高差、排数、总药量、炸药单耗、孔距是影响抛掷爆破振动速度的主要因素。优化确定最大迭代次数为100、激活函数为Relu、随机数种子为42、神经元数量为30、数据分配比为8∶2。与单一模型相比,集成预测模型能够克服传统单一预测模型的局限,具有更好的信息捕获能力,提高振动速度预测模型的鲁棒性及预测精度。该模型的评价指标决定系数(R2均方根误差(RMSE平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为0.957、4.382、2.173,相较于GA-LSSVM、Elman-Adaboost模型R2分别提升5.51%、12.34%,RMSE分别提升15.88%、25.63%,MAE分别提升35.99%、33.34%。

     

    Abstract: Compared with loose blasting, throwing blasting has higher vibration intensity and lower frequency, which has a greater impact on the safety production of open-pit mines. To accurately predict the vibration velocity of throwing blasting, literature review data and on-site monitoring data were used to analyze the characteristics of throwing blasting vibration velocity related data. Pearson correlation analysis was used to clarify the key influencing factors of throwing blasting vibration velocity, and a prediction index system for throwing blasting vibration velocity was constructed. We separately constructed a genetic algorithm optimized least squares support vector machine (GA-LSSVM) model and an Elman neural network optimized adaptive enhancement algorithm (Elman Adaboost) model, and integrated the two using the inverse error method to form an integrated prediction model for throwing blasting vibration velocity. We also proposed evaluation criteria and testing methods for the models. The results indicate that the distance from the blasting center, height difference, number of rows, total charge, explosive consumption per unit, and hole spacing are the main factors affecting the vibration velocity of throwing blasting. Optimize to determine a maximum iteration count of 100, activation function of Relu, random number seed of 42, number of neurons of 30, and data allocation ratio of 8∶2. Compared with the single model, the integrated prediction model can overcome the limitations of the traditional single prediction model, have better information capture ability, and improve the robustness and prediction accuracy of the vibration speed prediction model. The evaluation index determination coefficient (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) of this model are 0.957, 4.382, and 2.173, respectively. Compared with GA-LSSVM and Elman Adaboost models, R2 has increased by 5.51% and 12.34%, RMSE has increased by 15.88% and 25.63%, and MAE has increased by 35.99% and 33.34%, respectively.

     

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