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基于PSO−SVR的掘进工作面风温预测

Research on wind temperature prediction of tunneling working site based on PSO−SVR

  • 摘要: 采掘作业空间风温预测是矿井热害治理的重要基础。为精准预测掘进工作面风温,建立了基于粒子群的支持向量回归(PSO−SVR)掘进工作面风温预测模型,并通过与多元线性回归MLR模型和经“试错法”标定参数的常规SVR模型进行对比,分析PSO−SVR算法的优势,最终应用于平煤十矿己-24120保护层风巷风温预测与局部制冷降温。结果表明:PSO−SVR模型预测性能最优,模型平均误差仅为1.81%,较常规SVR模型减小了62.6%,可见PSO优化模型参数对于提高SVR拟合度、泛化性及预测精度具有重要作用,此外基于PSO−SVR风温预测结果与《煤矿安全规程》风温要求计算得到己-24120保护层风巷需冷量为1 083.28 kW,根据该结果进行局部制冷降温,工作面风温平均降幅约8.6 ℃,降温效果显著,表明了PSO−SVR风温预测模型的可靠性和可行性。

     

    Abstract: The wind temperature prediction of extractive working space is an important basis for the management of underground thermal pollution. A model of wind temperature prediction in tunneling working site based on PSO−SVR (Particle Swarm Optimization-Based Support Vector Regression) was established to accurately predict the wind temperature in tunneling working site, and the advantages of the PSO−SVR algorithm were analyzed by comparing it with the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model and the traditional SVR model with the standardization of the parameters by the “Trial and Error Method”, and finally it was applied to wind temperature prediction and local cooling of Ji-24120 return airway bottom roadway in No.10 Coal Mine, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. The results show that the PSO−SVR model has the best prediction performance, and the average error of the model is only 1.81%, which is reduced 62.6% compared with the traditional SVR model. It is obvious that the optimisation of the model parameters by PSO plays an important role in improving the fit, generalisation and prediction accuracy of SVR. In addition, based on the results of wind temperature prediction by PSO−SVR algorithm and the wind temperature requirements of “Coal Mine Safety Regulations”, calculated that the cooling capacity of Ji-24120 return airway bottom roadway is 1 083.28 kW, and using the above results for local cooling, the wind temperature of the working face is average reduced about 8.6 ℃, the cooling effect is significant, which shows the reliability and feasibility of the wind temperature prediction model of PSO−SVR.

     

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